Some interesting revelations in the Budget
1. The PNM planned to borrow 5.6 billion in 2016 but borrowed 10.3 billion (see page x of draft estimates of Revenue 2018 document)
2. Planned borrowing in 2018 is 6.56 billion. Using a GDP of 150 billion for 2018 the debt to GDP ratio will rise from 62.6 percent to 67 percent. The threshold is 60 percent
3. The PNM on page 2 of the same document estimated they would have collected 500 million in property taxes in 2017. They collected zero. Now they estimate 250 million for 2018
4. Excise duties estimated at 987.5 million. Only 691.9 million collected. 300 million less
5. They estimated they would collect 414.2 million in motor vehicle taxes. They collected 245.1 million or 169 million less
6. VAT estimated at 7.8 billion realized only 6.4 billion or 1.4 billon less
7. The comptroller of Customs and Excise collected 63 million less in excise duties in rum and spirits as well as 36 million less on beer duties and 173 million less on cigarettes.
8. Transport commissioner had planned to Collect overall 604.6 million but collected only 414.9 million or 190 million less
9. Taxes collected from individuals was 631 million less in 2017. Why. Is there more unemployment than is being reported or are companies not submitting taxes collected
10. Taxes in online purchases estimated at 70 million only realized 23.8 million
11. Import duties fell from an estimated 2.94 million to 2.6 billion, 300 million less
12. Dividends and surpluses from state enterprises fell by 1,127 million. They now estimate that only 1,428 million will be collected in 2018. That is 50 percent less. Why
This PNM govt is very inefficient in collecting taxes and as well they are presiding over a declining economy.
Spending under the Development Programme- Consolidated Fund
1. Only 64.5 percent of IDF spent in 2017
2. Only 75.8 percent of Consolidated Fund under DP spent in 2017
Lowest spenders under Consolidated
1 Works and Transport- 34percent
2 Community Development, Culture and the Arts- 43 percent
3 Planning and Development – 30 percent
4 Agriculture Lands and Fisheries -32.5 percent
5. Social Development and Family Services -17.2 percent
6 Judiciary-45 percent
7 Finance-16 percent
8 Sports and Youth Affairs-36 percent
Critical Ministries which can have a significant impact on resuscitation of the economy spent less than 50 percent of their Development Programme funds under the Consolidated Fund
In particular construction would have been severely negatively affected.
Under the IDF Ministry of Works and Transport spent 49.7 percent while overall IDF spending was 75.8 percent.
In general what are the implications of such low spending in capital projects mean for critical areas of Governance and Citizen Development.
For example under IDF Rural Development and Local Government spent only 40 percent while Agriculture spent only 52 percent and National Security spent only 50 percent
Conclusion- Government has a major implementation deficit in strategic Ministries.